![]() ![]() Based on these uncertainties and low forecast confidence, have capped PoPs off at 50 percent. There may be an increase in shower coverage late in the day and evening as the actual cold front moves across the region. The 12z global models are in a bit better agreement overall with an initial wave of showers weakening in the morning with little in the way of activity the rest of the morning into the afternoon. The 12z CAMS disagree on timing and location of showers. This creates a challenge in trying to time any weak disturbance or brief area of enhanced lift ahead of the front. The flow in the middle and upper levels continues to be zonal with the bulk of the dynamics remaining well north of the area. Low pressure will continue working its way across southeast Canada on Thursday, slowly dragging a cold front through the region by Thursday night. SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Lows tonight will be above normal in the 40s across the area. The flow aloft will generally be westerly, but there could be some subtle shortwaves in the flow along with warm advection that could generate a few showers early Thursday morning, mainly across the western half of the area. Otherwise, the bulk of the dynamics with the aforementioned low will be located well to our north and west tonight. Some of the light QPF on the models may be more of an indication of some low stratus development rather than measurable precipitation. However, an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out over the east end of Long Island and in New London County CT. A general consensus of the guidance indicates that the bulk of any showers with this moisture surge will remain east of the area. The models have been hinting as a surge of low level moisture across eastern Long Island and southeast CT this evening into tonight. This front will still remain well to our west tonight with warm advection the main mechanism for increasing moisture. An area of low pressure along with a an upper trough across southeast Canada will start to drag a cold front towards the region overnight. ![]() High pressure continues to move offshore this evening as a warm front lifts to our north. Dewpoints were lowered slightly and clouds were increased a small amount compared to the previous forecast. Low pressure develops and approaches the area towards the middle of next week. High pressure then builds in from the north and west for Sunday into Monday. Low pressure developing along the warm front moves across Saturday night. A warm front lifts towards the area on Saturday. The associated cold front will then move across the area late Thursday into Thursday night before stalling to our south on Friday as high pressure briefly noses down from eastern Canada. A frontal system approaches from the west tonight into Thursday. Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪrea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 518 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 ![]()
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